The looming gas cliff in South Africa is a critical issue that demands immediate attention and strategic action. This crisis, primarily stemming from the decline in natural gas supplies from Mozambique's Pande and Temane fields, poses significant risks to the country's economy, industry, and energy security. The Pande-Temane fields have been a cornerstone of South Africa's gas supply for over two decades, providing approximately 90% of the country's gas needs. However, their production is expected to fall after 2028, creating a critical shortage. This shortage is not just an energy supply issue but also a matter of industrial policy, food security, and manufacturing competitiveness. The implications are far-reaching, affecting not only the energy sector but also the livelihoods of around 70,000 to 100,000 people directly employed in industries reliant on this gas supply. Furthermore, the broader contribution of these industries to the South African economy is substantial, with Sasol's operations alone estimated to support approximately 500,000 direct and indirect jobs and contribute around 5% of the GDP. The urgency of the situation is underscored by the need for South Africa to import 300-400 petajoules of gas per year, equivalent to 6-8 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), to meet industrial heating and gas-to-power needs. The current supply is insufficient, and delay only increases the risk of higher prices, a weaker industry, and greater energy insecurity. The policy framework and infrastructure for gas imports are in place, with the draft Gas Master Plan identifying Richards Bay as a key LNG import location and considering Matola in Mozambique as a regional supply option. However, the timeline for these initiatives is tight, with the gas cliff just a few years away. The first and most urgent option is to enable LNG imports, with Durban and Richards Bay serving as potential import terminals. However, the existing pipeline infrastructure is insufficient to supply inland demand, necessitating a second import route via Mozambique through the ports of Matola or Inhassoro. This dual-terminal strategy must be secured and operational by mid-2030 to address the immediate shortage. While regional and domestic gas sources are essential, they are not immediate saviours due to timelines, costs, distance from infrastructure, and regulatory delays. Demand-side measures, such as shifting to LPG, diesel, electricity, trucked LNG, or compressed natural gas (CNG), may also be necessary, but many alternatives are expensive, technically immature, logistically difficult, or higher-emitting. South Africa's effective carbon tax, rising from R35/tonne (US$2) in 2024 to R115/tonne (US$7) in 2030, will not alone force wholesale substitution. A credible gas plan tied to procurement, infrastructure, and industrial policy is required. The Department of Minerals and Energy, regulators, state-owned companies, and private investors need a clear LNG-to-power strategy that outlines the necessary gas volumes, pricing, storage, and supply adjustments. The regulatory system also needs reform, with clearer rules on environmental assessments for offshore oil and gas projects and a specialist tribunal to resolve disputes. Marine spatial planning is crucial to manage competing uses of South Africa's ocean space. Coordination is paramount, and a dedicated delivery structure similar to Operation Vulindlela or a Rompco-style vehicle is necessary to bring the state and private sector together. The critical review of policy, regulatory, procurement, infrastructure, and upstream development activities indicates that decisions must be taken within the next few years to avoid a post-2030 gas supply shortfall. Early action is essential to ensure that import infrastructure and domestic production capacity are available in time to support future gas demand and maintain security of supply beyond 2030. The call to action is clear: decide now, procure now, permit now, build now. The gas cliff will not wait for another master plan; the time for action is now.
